With fuel prices up and credit stiffening, the RV manufacturers are feeling the sag in sales. I have it on good authority (meaning that all of us were reasonably sober at the time) that one mid-upper level manufacturer NationalRVhas ceased operations (at least temporarily), and the mid-level Newmar Kountry Aire/Star has as well.

I think many more shakeups are in the offing, and I wouldn't be surprised if the mass-marketers like Winnebago and Fleetwood shuck off or close many lines.

One wonders (OK, I wonder) when the dealers will awaken to the message, and get realistic. Three months? Six? A year? Newells always sell, as do Prevosts and Prevost-based coaches. But then there are those bought by semi-average citizens; what of them? I suspect dealers are about to become Enlightened, as the market is about to hit the deep mud.

If it were I in the market, I'd start doing my homework to be ready to pounce on a good deal on a Beaver, Safari Serengeti, Bluebird, or Barth. But it's going to take some time for most dealers to realize they better move some units, at whatever price that takes.

Our local dealer, RV World of Nokomis, has a front row of probably 60 top-end coaches collecting dust. I've talked with the people there and they aren't moving ANYTHING. How long can a medium sized dealership sit on that much inventory? As a sign of the times, their biggest problem is salesmen forgetting to lock up every unit at night and finding homeless people sleeping in them in the morning. This was unheard of a year ago and is a daily occurence now.
So let's say I don't own a coach. I'd really like one for racing and camping on the occasional weekend. Anything I would want is 35-40 G, but due to the market I can get something pretty nice for 20. I can put down maybe 5, finance the rest, and keep my payments to 350 a month. So those payments don't kill me when I figure my thousand buck a week income. Oh yeah!, that's right, I'm not making a grand anymore cause there's no construction going on. I'm killing bugs and bringing home about 350. So there's a whole weeks pay out of every month for our new toy. But we'll still save on traveling expenses to the races. Let's see, Dega is just over 700 miles each way, so 200 gallons should suffice. At 3.20, no they're talking closer to 4 by October that's $800! JUST for gas! I just bought round trip to Grand Rapids from Sarasota for 349. So both of us could fly to GR for less than driving the RV to Dega and back.
OK, that's just once a year. We can still go up to Hillsborough River on weekends. That's only about 70 miles each way. Maybe 18 to 20 gallons tops. If the predicters are accurate, that's 80 bucks in gas before we even think about camping fees, food, and drink,[ESPECIALLY drinks!].
Come to think of it, if you GAVE me the coach, we still couldn't afford to use it nearly as much as we'd like. So no, I'm not going to go deeply in debt to own one.
So this hypothetical situation might show sellers why Joe average is no longer in the market for a coach, no matter how good of a deal he can get. Yes there are still a lot of folks out there who want a coach. BUT, there are a heck of a lot more coaches out there wanting a new owner.
Situation #2; We are solvent and retiring to full time with long stays at each destination, doing what we can to make a buck and get free or cheap site rental. We have 70 grand cash to hand over for the right coach. It's a good time to be us!!! Take care and safe travels Rusty.

With fuel prices most likely to continue to rise over time, I doubt that the RV market will ever be as it once was. Look at GM for example, that has a large stake in the truck market. I've seen nice, well maintained older Bluebirds on eBait that start at $20K and only get one bid. There's another one out their now, not to mention the Barth Regency that was relisted at $25K and still isn't generating much interest. At 6-8 MPG, it's expensive to take them anywhere, not to mention the age factor. Maybe the RV industry can head towards hybrids

DannyZ points out the other dilemma a prospective buyer may endure, that of spotty or diminishing real income. And even the financially comfortable retiree will have to consider the costs of travel.

I think one thing we'll start to see is a demand by the prospective customers for legitimate fuel efficiency data, such as miles-per-gallon. No RV dealer I know of is either prepared nor equipped to (honestly) provide that.

devolo is right on, in that the RV market is going through an evolution - but is "another" evolution, similar to the one in '72 with the Arab oil embargo, where the then-few motorhome manufacturers nearly went under.

If any of the RV builders actually survive, there'll be a move towards smaller engines, maybe 8- or 9-speed transmissions, and some superficial effort towards aerodynamic shapes. But, IMHO, none of the current manufacturers are endowed with foresight (much less common sense - it's not like this fuel-cost situation has been hidden), so they keep on keepin' on.

So like devolo mentioned, motorhome prices will continue to drop, especially when those individuals who are over extended with a loan, and who are upside down in the coach, flip their keys to Repo Man. Wait until the repos hit the market...

During the fuel crunch of the '70s, we were still in the travel trailer era. Fifth wheels were uncommon, as were motor homes. It was predicted then that RVs would become smaller. Several trailer manufacturers began building "Lite" models, 2 or 3 tried really small fiberglass units, & small Class C's on Toyota chassis proliferated.

The market took off in a completely different direction. The emphasis shifted from traveling to destinations. Park models came to prominence as did big 5th wheels. RV condominiums, rare before the late '70s, became popular, with larger & larger, & more & more expensive lots, with fancier & fancier amenities. The economy grew faster than fuel prices rose, & motor homes grew to the behemoths we see today.

Recently fuel prices adjusted for inflation have exceeded the relative level of the late 70s & early 80s, & now the economy is tanking, not growing.
Much of the prosperity we have enjoyed in recent years has been fueled by growth in public & private debt, but the chickens are coming home to roost.

The mortgage crunch is probably just the beginning of a crumbling private debt pyramid, & if China ever stops lending our government those dollars we paid for stuff with the "Made In China," label, we're in the deep do-do. This isn't politics, it's economic fact.

As the economy tightens, odds are there will be a glut of oversize 5th wheels & motor homes, & it is quite likely there will be a shred-out of manufacturers as there was in the '70s.

It will be interesting to see how the RV economy develops in light of these economic changes. RV travel is at the expensive end of the recreation spectrum, & as disposable personal income declines, & personal fiscal conservatism returns, I suspect those rows of shiny new RVs on dealer lots will get pretty dusty before they're sold.

One of our local charities is already using donated RVs to house the homeless. Do you suppose that could be the wave of the future? Dreary thought, eh?

45 years ago I was pumping gas after school. It cost Cdn $0.45 - $0.50 a gallon as I recall. A good wage was $400. a month and our nice family home cost $18,000. Today a good wage is $4000.+ a month, that same home would sell easily for $450,000. Our gas and diesel in Alberta is more expensive than USA prices. Still it seems reasonably priced when considering the whole story. We try to drive fairly economical transportation on a daily basis so don't feel too bad burning some extra in the Barth.

Like all mechanical toys, I think the overall enjoyment of an RV is inversely
proportional to the size of the coupon book that came with it. The drunken sailor mentality of the recent credit debacle has been a wake-up call for many, and panic selling is starting to gain momentum. As a casual follower of Class A listings on eBay, I see a distinct increase in 1-3 year old mid-level coaches being offered. (You still wait up to a year for delivery of your Newell or Prevost – a market much less volatile.) For the right person under the right circumstances, current panic selling can result in bargain opportunities.

I recall my first Class A acquisition in 1973, as we headed into the ’73-’74 oil crisis. Within a few months, oil went from $4 to $12 a barrel with gas prices jumping overnight from 38 cents to 55 cents, IF you could find a station open. Fate connected me with the owner of a unit that was less than 120 days old from manufacture and had been used for two weekend trips – the plastic wrap was still on the upholstery. The 17 cent spike in gas had spooked the owner – he just wanted out of the rv’ing experience. As a result, I obtained my first new Class A at about 50% of MSRP, enjoying it for three years and then disposing of it for even money. (Unfortunately, my RV dealings in subsequent years wiped out any cockiness I may have had over this one time deal-of-the-century!)

Like many of us, I’m now fortunate to be reasonably bullet-proof during this coming RV glut and industry shake-out. My old Barth, perfectly suited to my needs, has a depreciation curve that has already flat-lined. Our travel habits are usually 2-3 long weekend trips a month, rarely over 250-300 miles roundtrip. A 25 cent spike in gas prices computes into less than $10.00 per trip – hardly a deal breaker. Last year, our direct and indirect Barth costs came to just shy of $1.00 a mile. For the enjoyment, family bonding and memories, it was a bargain.

Those looking for a great bargain will see more and more of them coming as this industry adjustment takes place……keeping it a bargain will be the real challenge…..

I worked for Shell as an Industrial-Commercial Sales Engineer in the late sixties and early '70s. Mideast sweet crude at the time was $1.75/bbl (42 gal/bbl). We sold gaso and diesel at $0.10/gal ex-taxes. Rotella T was (list price) $0.86/gal in 55 gal drums. Rotella was $0.67.

Like Lee, I'm probably upside down in my Breakaway (considering market value vs what-I-have-in-it), but it's paid for, and it's ideal for Maggie, Casey, and me so taking a beating selling it isn't an issue, 'cuz it's a very famous RV: It's the "Most-Ain't-for-Salest" coach in the Southeast.