Actually I think it is pretty straight forward. A vehicle depreciates about 20-25% the first year and from 15-10% each year thereafter. So a new sale of $115,000 will be worth $97,000 when it is driven off the lot. At the end of 10 years it should be worth around $10,000. At the end of 16 years it has bottomed out at around $5,000 to $14,000 depending on the market.

Some brands like Airstream have a dedicated following and their prices are supported better than others. An Airstream in good shape will bring around 34% of its initial price and sell quite quickly. (I know this from recent experience.) I sold and bought another one with exactly these conditions.

If the market is soft and the following of a brand is limited then I think the 8 - 15% bottom line price is realistic. Unless someone is willing to pay much more and hold on to the vehicle forever he should not pay more. Also, the older the vehicle gets the more risk there is when you acquire it. Tires, brakes, air compressors, and engines/transmissions can add up to quite a bit of additional investment that you will never recover.

Just my 2 cents worth.

BTW, the unrealistic prices have caused us to reconsider the whole MH routine and we have purchased a wonderful Airstream that will fill our needs quite well.

Don

On an airplane, I bought a used 1975 Piper Arrow 11 in 1986 for $28,000 and sold it in 2001 for $62,000 of course a new one at that time would have cost $300,000 in 2001. No major work was done other than normal maintance, I flew the plane for 15 years and made good sum of money on the sale. I lost my medical and needed to sell at the time.. sky

Once again, I still say go back to the title of the book, NADA is called a "guide". There are both high and lows listed, but, you can ask anything you want. My husband has a 1936 Ford pickup, all original, including the flat head V8, (the paint is 25 years old, and it sparkles just like it came off the showroom floor). Now, this truck sold new at $786, sooooo, following the suggestions, I guess that we would have to pay someone to take her away!!!! Any takers????

To further complicate this issue, your insurance policy will pay you well above NADA figures, assuming that you have agreed on a replacement value. In the case of the $786 pickup, the insurance company agrees at $32,000. Go figure.

I believe the bottom line is, we should look at the NADA figures IF the vehicle is a NADA vehicle. Now, I personally have never driven an NADA vehicle, since I have never, ever seen any vehicle, at trade in, not matter how perfect, or how clean, get the top NADA price. I know for a fact that any vehicle depreciates to a certain dollar, then.....it's all condition, condition, condition.....A perfect vehicle interior, with an imperfect paint job, commands a price, as does a perfect exterior, with a imperfect interior, then, at long last you have the collectible, or the classic, such as Airstream, and IMHO....THE BARTH!!!!

I don't believe we are doing our line of vehicles justice by even suggesting NADA values, which as Jim pointed out, are ridiculous.

Tina

quote:

Originally posted by Jim and Tere:
What in the world is going on with NADA?

The numbers are as reported by MH dealers. Perhaps there is some dishonesty there.

To further complicate matters, my insurance company, State Farm, will not insure my Breakaway as a '94 model as it is titled and licensed as, because they do not have records of a '94 Barth Breakaway being built, last year according to them is '93 which mine is insured as. (for replacement value)

I quoted the wrong NADA figures in my post. 84 Airstream Excella $3500. 85 Barth Regal $2142. Both 28' on P32 with Chev 454. AFAIC, these figures aren't worth the paper they're printed on. I think the folks on this site know far better what a Barth will bring in this market. Just ask and they will give good advice.

Now, Bill h, you wouldn't be implying that those nice men (and women) who sell these motorhomes at the dealerships would be dishonest???? Are you saying that they would lie to you just to complete a sale......or tell you something that you know is not true???? My, my, my, what is this world coming to. Next thing I know, you are going to tell me that the car dealers do the same thing......

Seriously, take a widget that is offered for sale. One has been lovingly cared for, and pampered, and obviously commands a higher price. So, let's say this widget sells for $10.00. The next widget has not been pampered, and has trees growing through it, aaaaand, the owner is about to go to jail, he sells it for $2.00, and is happy with his deal. Now, when NADA tells you the price of widgets, do they tell you $6.00, as that would be the average price of widgets reported.......just musing.

In the area of Barths, I don't know how in the world they could report accurate figures. How many RV lots have you been on where one is actually for sale? They are rare, we all know that. Some could purposely drive the price down, but we as owners know the true value, and we as Barthmobilers should do all we can to protect the value, and not sell according to NADA..., and not just dump them to get some quick cash, that is, of course, if you can afford to hold out. Those who dump them, such a the widget man going to jail, is going to drive the NADA price down.

Coffee anyone????

Here's an interesting example of someone believing that NADA is the bible of price. A class C gasser @ 61,000 bucks. You have to scroll down to see how they actually came up with their figures. I didn't see door handles or a steering wheel in the list of options but I'm sure that was just an oversight on their part!
http://sarasota.craigslist.org/rvs/1164745458.html

I think there are always buyers for exceptional vehicles in great condition. The seller might have to wait but someone will come along.

I owned the first Porsche Speedster built in 1956. It was a classic with no windows, 16" wheels and lots of 1955 carry-over features. A fellow stopped me on the street and bought the car even though it was not for sale. ($1,250 in 1963.) The same car today would bring about $150,000. The point is that it would be a rare, hard-to-find car that some collector could not live without. NADA value would be non-existent.

Another story. A friend just bought a 2006 Airstream Class A that is absolutely perfect with only 20,000 miles. The coach sold for over $300,000 new and he paid around $190,000. So, the way I see it, this sale supports the 25%, 10%, 10% theory. A dealer would have tried to sell the rig for around $250,000, I imagine, but would not be able to get it. (I have no idea what the NADA value is.)

NADA serves as guide to dealers and buyers to help determine the value of vehicles when there are plenty around. It helps dealers, finance companies and buyers. A Chevrolet Malibu is worth probably very close to the prices listed by them but a Ferrari Testa Rosa is worth what a buyer is willing to pay at any specific time.

Anything will sell if it is priced low enough including real estate.

Having owned many vehicles over the years, I have realized that you make your money when you buy something not when you sell it. If you overpay for something (and I have done this) you have to be prepared to sell at a loss or wait for that very right buyer to come along.

Don

quote:

Originally posted by Jim and Tere:
84 Airstream Excella $3500. 85 Barth Regal $2142. Both 28' on P32 with Chev 454.

Before buying my Barth, I looked at Airstreams. I decided a Barth was better for us.

1. Equal build quality.

2. Equal cabinetry.

3. The Airstreams we looked at had twin beds. This is just personal preference, but since All Barths Are Different, the advantage went to Barth.

4. Our Barth had way more exterior and interior storage. Barth interior overhead storage has square cross-section rather than rounded Airstream.

5. Tag Axle: Aistream 30 does not have a tag. Airstream 32 and 34 tags have a rubber biscuit tag suspension rather than air bags as used by Barth.

6. I felt that Airstream owners had a cult thing going that made them think the coach they were selling was a "collector's item" and was worth way more. At that time, the only Barth cult was small, with no internet presence to run the price up.

7. A potato chip truck never handles well, but the Airstreams I test drove had lower centers of gravity than our basement Barth, and they did handle better. This means I drive my Barth 5 mph slower on twisty mountain roads.

8. No coach is prettier than a pristine, polished-up Airstream classic bullet.

OK, back to beating up on NADA prices..........

Bill,

The older Airstream MHs never did very well and have very little following. The ones I have looked at have been pretty well taken through the ringer.

Your reference to "following" is the key. There is a big market for Airstream TT products and the folks seem to have the extra $$ to pay the higher prices.

The later models are much more like a Country Coach or one of those fiberglass bodied new style motor homes. They have slide outs and all of the new bells and whistles. They are on Freightliner chassis (at least the longer ones) and have big Cummins/Allison drive packages. All in all it is tough to tell them from other model rigs. (I don't think there is a big following of them either because of the costs.) Airstream did much better in the TT business, I think.

The people I know who are into these things are focused on a few issues.

1. How many slides does it have?

2. Does it have a washer/dryer?

3. How much horsepower does it have?

4. Does it have 50 amp. service?

5. Does it have 3 TVs and surround sound?

6. Can we fit it with a Tropical/California room?

None of these things are important to me.

Don

If you stop & think for a moment, you'll realize that there aren't enough Barths sold to provide an accurate market analysis, so NADA prices must be calculated using a standard depreciation factor. That probably applies equally to other "off-brands" with limited sales.

As a matter of history, six or seven years ago I tracked all the Barth sales I could find over about a year. The average selling price was about 90% of the low NADA value, & that's what I paid for mine. That was before the market went to pieces.

When I ultimately sold mine for health reasons, the market had tanked & gas prices were skyrocketing. I marketed it for a full year (not as widely as I might have - probably would have done better on e-Bay) & ultimately found a cash buyer who gave me about half of the then-NADA value.

I have said before, & I'll say again, fair market value is ultimately determined when a willing seller & a willing buyer agree on a price.

Considering the state of the economy, I'm sure today's market is filled with a larger than usual number of overly optimistic sellers, & bargain-hunting buyers. There's a lot of dreamers out there on both sides.

Review El Segundo Bill's experience when he bought his, & the inquiries he got later from buyers who refused his original offer. That was when the market was still reasonably good. Now? Who knows?

OLROY,

You are right on the money with your analysis.

Don

quote:

Originally posted by Cantrade:
I think there are always buyers for exceptional vehicles in great condition. The seller might have to wait but someone will come along.

NADA value is completely valueless in calculating the retail value of many RV’s; especially when it comes to a vehicle as scarce as a Barth.

NADA calculations are statistical compilations made by absorbing the input of hundreds of thousands of cars of the same make and model and scaling it out by year. It works very well for Fords, Hondas and the like but has is virtually meaningless in the small statistical sample of a Barth.

What we should be talking about in this thread is MARKET or as the traders say “making a market’. Whether it’s stocks, groceries, or Barthmobiles a market is made when a buyer and seller agree upon a price.

The very fact that there are people on this forum who have been looking for months for some fool dumb enough or desperate enough to meet a NADA price shows that the market for these is not in fact not related to NADA prices at all or they would have one by now.


QUOTE “and cats were an inside pet.”

Since we all know that cats are cleaner than dogs, children and especially drunks. I would think this would be considered ‘pristine’.

I certainly agree with Tigger that NADA, especially now, is not a very good measure for a Barth, certainly not one pre- 1990. I really don't know what a good measure is since there seem to be very few Barths selling in the last six months. At the same time, while I have put $10000 in my 85 Regal, on top of the $15000 I paid for it in 2005, I know I could probably get maybe $10000 for it, maybe. OTOH, Ed Chevalier's 85 Regal is worth much more than mine. It just looks and is better. So, to a great deal, it all comes down to condition, condition, condition. Mine is pretty good mechanically but cosmetically leaves something to be desired. Ed's is close to pristine in all aspects. What makes NADA even more worthless now than just a month ago, is that NADA prices on the mid 80s Barths have dropped over 50% in the last month. My 85 Regal had a NADA of %5800 in April. Now it,s $2300!!